Defensive Pessimism

I hear that corporate psychologists are fashionably outlawing the use of the word “but” preferring “and” as it’s more positive. I disagree with this fundamentally, for the same reasons as I disagree with Instaquotes about always being positive.

I live as a defensive pessimist – What is the worst that can happen and how will I deal with it? As a result, people are often surprised to hear that I live in a state of happy wonder when my premonitions go unfulfilled.

The reason that defensive pessimism works so well is that it is based in reality. It may be nice to be an optimist but it definitely sets you up for more setbacks overall. Here’s an example.

I’ve learned that helicopters are rarely in the right place at the right time despite reading Chickenhawk a number of times. As a result when I’m told that we’ll get picked up by helicopter from the mountains in a developing country after living in the field for a week or so I am not filled with buoyant optimism. I expect that I’ll be walking the long trail back to civilisation and I pack my kit accordingly – Water and food kept in reserve, my dry clothes kept dry and my useful equipment and med kit near the top of my bag.

If when we reach the pick up point, there is a helicopter there then great. It still may not take off. But let’s say that it does – I haven’t lost anything. Alternatively If I were an optimist I may have eaten my emergency food, put on my dry clothes and be jettisoning my extra water to save weight. If the heli doesn’t arrive now, then I’m fucked.

Positivity has its place but I don’t think it’s often suited to dangerous situations where a contingency plan is needed. Basically possessing a pessimistic mindset allows you to contingency plan all the way home. It’s never over until it’s over. This doesn’t mean that you can’t still enjoy the journey, it just means that you don’t quite relax until you know for sure that the adventure is over.

In extremis the line between defensive pessimism and optimism gets blurred. A Norwegian resistance fighter in the second world war who has been shot, avalanched, amputated his gangrenous toes and is now buried in a snow grave on a plateau having been left for dead has with him a bottle of liquor. Rather than drinking all of it and waiting to die he only drinks half the bottle. The next night he only drink half of what’s left and on the third night he only drinks half of this again – and so on until a month later, he’s still buried in the snow, and he’s just touching the spirits to his lips each day. “It can always get worse so I’ll keep some spare for the next day”. Or. “Well I may get rescued tomorrow so I’d better plan to still be around for that and not finish all of my drink today”. Both are strong mindsets but only become closely aligned in a ridiculous situation like this. However you want to see the world, it’s worth being prepared for tomorrow, even if you think it’s all going to go well. You can read about Jan Baalstrud's epic in We Die Alone by David Howarth.

Defensive pessimism prompts action, compared to positivity which seems passive. Hoping for the best is a non-participants way through life. The allure of positivity is that it makes you sound like a "positive person". But I don't want to be surrounded by positive people, I want warriors and adventurers. I want the kind of people who see bad things about to unfold and begin doing something about it. I wan to know that no matter what happens, the person by my side won't collapse under the pressure, because they've already prepared themselves for worse.

Crevasses, bad visibility and seracs above. It can always get worse so let's keep moving

I don't use AI. I write each post in one go, and I don't proof read what I've written. Hopefully the repetition, spelling mistakes and mental unload will make this obvious to you.